Diamonds are forever
Consumer demand grows strongly, fuelled by recovery in the US economy and continued above-average growth in emerging markets, especially China and India. Brands become more important and increasingly invest in promoting the allure of diamonds. Even with demand in Europe and Japan softening, the dynamics of supply and demand in this scenario mean that previously uneconomical projects become economically viable.
Demand grows more slowly as key consumer markets such as the US, China and India experience weak growth. Companies lose the incentive to invest heavily in brands, and diamonds lose some appeal through a lack of investment in promoting the diamond category and consumers moving away from conspicuous consumption.
Feast and Famine
The diamond industry develops in a volatile manner, driven by high levels of global macro-economic growing uncertainty. Strong rises in demand are followed by sharp decreases, leading to scattered supply expansion. Lead-time between the demand and supply cycles implies a wide variation in prices. Mining companies strive to diversify their mining assets to manage volatility and adapt to the growing resource nationalism trend.
East Renews Global Growth
The industry enjoys strong growth driven by emerging markets, especially China and India. However, US growth is only moderate. The consumer base for diamonds widens as the emerging middle class grows and consumers show a distinct preference for brands. In this case, diamond producers will continue to invest in developing new supply projects.