Diamond Demand

Goldman Sachs

Diamond demand is expected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11 per cent in nominal value between 2013 and 2017, driven by:

  • Cyclical recovery in US consumer spend on luxury goods as economic growth recovers.
  • Structural demand growth from emerging markets on the back of higher penetration of diamond jewellery among a growing middle class.

Royal Bank of Canada

Demand is set to strengthen rapidly, determined by the recovery of consumer confidence in two key markets:

  • The US, which represents the largest share of global jewellery sales. All indicators point to the fact that the US will remain strong going forward.
  • China, which will underpin diamond growth in the medium term, as penetration of diamond jewellery pieces increases. Jewellery growth in China is expected to remain robust, with leading retailers such as Chow Tai Fook reporting 32 per cent higher retail revenue over the 2014 Chinese New Year.

Diamond Supply

Goldman Sachs

Global natural supply is expected to increase at an average rate of 5.2 per cent between 2013 and 2017:

  • Output in established mines fall as older mines come to the end of their life or move to underground mining. Going underground will make it difficult to maintain existing output levels due to additional haulage time and the technical challenges that comes with underground mining.
  • New mines coming online (including Grib, Gahcho Kué, Bunder Karponskogo, Star-Orion South and Renard) represent only 17 million additional carats per year.

Royal Bank of Canada

Production will be increased by a set number of projects coming online including:

  • Petra’s proposed expansion of Finsch and Cullinan, which will lift production from ~3 million carats per year in 2014 to over 5 million carats per year in 2019.
  • Grib: 4 million carats per year.
  • Gahcho Kue: 4 million carats per year by the end of 2017.
  • Renard: 1.5-2 million carats by the end of 2017.